Two Numerical Variables (Part 3)

Rebekah Robinson, Georgetown College

Load Packages

Always remember to make sure the necessary packages are loaded:

require(mosaic)
require(tigerstats)

Cautions

Extrapolation

What is Extrapolation?

Extrapolation is estimating the value of a response variable using it's relationship with an explanatory variable whose value is outside the original range of observed values.

Extrapolation: An Example

The regression line from the Penn State data relating height and right handspan is

\( \hat{y}=41.96+1.239x \).

The range of observed right handspans in this dataset is 12.5 cm to 26 cm.

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Example continued

The tallest living male, Sultan Kosen, has a right handspan of 30.48 cm. The Penn State regression line would predict his height to be

\[ \hat{y}=41.96+(1.239)(30.48)=79.72 \mbox{ inches}. \]

Sultan Kosen is really 8' 3"! (99 inches)

Extrapolation can result in inaccurate predictions.

Influential Observations

Risks

Influential observations

  • have extreme \( x \)-values,

  • inflate or deflate correlation,

  • affect the slope of the regression line.

Graphic: Influential Observation

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Further Investigation

Investigate influential observations further with the following app:

require(manipulate)
Points2Watch()

Association versus Causation

An Example

In m111survey, there is a negative association between one's height and GPA.

Correlation does not imply causation!

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[1] -0.1292

Example continued

Confounding variables may be responsible, at least partially, for the observed association.

Sex may be a possible confounder.

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Example continued

  • Mean guy height = 71.92
  • Mean guy GPA = 3.03

  • Mean gal height = 64.94

  • Mean gal GPA = 3.33

On average, guys are taller than gals but have lower GPAs. This helps to explain the negative association.

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Example continued

Recall: The correlation coefficient for the aggregate data is -0.1292

The correlation coefficient for the guys is 0.2107.

The correlation coefficient for the gals is 0.0216.

This is an example of Simpson's Paradox.

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Simpson's Paradox

Recall

Simpson's Paradox occurs when the direction of the relationship is one way when you look at the aggregate data, but turns out the opposite way when the data is broken into subgroups based on a third variable.

Recall how this was stated in Chapter 3: Simpson's Paradox occurs when a relationship between variables \( X \) and \( Y \) reverses its direction when the data are broken down by the values of a third variable \( Z \).

Example: SAT

Take a look at the sat dataset:

data(sat)
View(sat)
help(sat)

Research Question: How is annual teacher salary related student performance on the SAT?

  • Explanatory variable, \( X \): salary (numerical)

  • Response variable, \( Y \): sat (numerical)

SAT Regression Analysis

Correlation Coefficient

[1] -0.4399

States that pay teachers higher annual salaries have lower average SAT scores.

Can this be true?

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A Third Variable

Use the following app to investigate what happens when you take into account a third variable, \( Z \), frac:

require(manipulate)
DtrellScat(sat~salary|frac,data=sat)

The variable frac is the percentage of students in the state who take the SAT.

Explaining the Paradox: First Observation

There is a positive association between frac and salary.

States where education is a high priority pay their teachers higher salaries.

In these states, a high proportion of students take the SAT. Education is a high priority so many students want to go to college.

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Explaining the Paradox: Second Observation

There is a negative association between frac and sat.

States with a high % taking the SAT have low SAT scores. SAT takers make up a broad pool

States with a low % taking the SAT have high SAT scores. SAT takers make up an elite pool.

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Explaining the Paradox: Putting it Together

Positive Association between salary and frac

+

Negative Association between frac and sat

\( = \)

Negative Association between salary and sat.

States where education is important pay teachers well, but also encourage most students to take the SAT. This handicap results in high salaries accompanying low SAT scores.